What do Trump’s tariffs mean for events?

In struggling to wrap my mind around the news coming out of the White House over the past fortnight, I found myself remembering the words of none other than Vladimir Ilyich Lenin who famously remarked that, ‘There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen’.

Of course, he meant it in a good way.

Even so, it’s striking just how much Comrade Lenin has in common with the current leader of the free world. Clearly Trump, in a shocking break with Republican party orthodoxy, subscribes to Lenin’s view of globalisation which might be crudely summarised as the acceptance that any given international order is inherently impermanent.

The similarities don’t stop there either. Apparently, Lenin was great at thinking up nicknames for political opponents. And it’s a reasonably safe assumption that he really liked Russia.

Great minds think alike, and all that. But I digress …

The global order is being upended, and the repercussions for the global meetings industry will be both immediate and far-reaching.

Because, while these continuously evolving tariffs and the inevitable ensuing trade wars are (thus far) all about ‘goods’ – and we tend to think of events (correctly) as existing in that nebulous part of the economy known as ‘services’ – the knock-on effects will still be significant.

Micro shocks

Starting with the immediate direct effects, tariffs will obviously lead to higher prices making the US in particular a more expensive place to hold meetings. From food and beverage costs to furnishings, exhibit booth materials, lighting supplies, electronics and custom fabrications – plenty of the stuff you see at events is sourced partially or entirely from countries which have been slapped with huge tariffs.

Think about all the merch you see at a tradeshow. How much of it comes from China? That’s right, most of it. Well, all those coffee mugs, pens and tote bags just became 125% more expensive.

The age of disposable swag as we know it, might just be over – and there’s a strong sustainability case for saying that’s a good thing.

However, the position of the US as the leading destination for global association meetings (there were some 690 in 2023) might also come under threat as organisers look elsewhere for lower costs and more stable operating conditions.
Somewhere between 18% to 20% of exhibitors at US conferences and trade shows are international, according to recent data from the Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) and Trade Show News Network (TSNN). This figure reflects a post-Covid rebound, and it’s worth noting that international participation varies significantly by industry. Some tech events, for example, attract as many as 60% foreign exhibitors.

If a company can no longer realistically expect to sell their products into the US due to punitive tariffs, why spend money trying to promote those products at events in the US?

Even for exhibitors who still have a business case to attend, tariffs can complicate logistics, such as the customs clearance of exhibit materials and demonstration products, increasing both costs and operational complexities for international participants.

For these reasons, trade shows and large events with relatively thin margins are going to bear the brunt of the damage since material and catering bills tend to represent a much higher share of total costs, while revenue depends on corporate decisions to buy a booth and send people to the show.

Which brings us to the next worry.

Bad vibes

The American meetings industry is understandably worried about whether international delegates will still be eager to visit a US that’s engaged in a trade war with their home country.

Tariffs are one thing, but heated rhetoric around trade wars can lead to heightened patriotism and reduce the willingness to travel to the US. Early data already suggests Canadian visits, for example, have begun to decline significantly.

Accor CEO Sébastien Bazin recently spoke of a ‘bad buzz’ around travel to the US and indicated that summer bookings from Europeans were down 25%, while some Canadian airlines have stopped marketing travel to the States.

Minor visa infractions have seen tourists and business travellers detained, shackled and deported by overzealous US border staff.

In response, some countries have beefed up their advice about travel to the US. Last week, Germany updated its US travel advisory to emphasise that a visa or entry waiver does not guarantee entry.

Meanwhile, the UK’s Foreign Office has revised its guidance to emphasise that you should comply with all requirements as ‘the authorities in the US set and enforce entry rules strictly [and] you may be liable to arrest or detention if you break the rules’. Ah, Britain! ‘Random country’ or not, we still lead the world in understatement!

The combination of global trade wars, together with increased uncertainty about how border agents will interpret and enforce border rules for legitimate business visitors, will likely harm the US’ saleability as an international meeting destination.

Nor is the domestic market without its challenges.

President Trump’s recent executive order taking aim at federal employee travel, directs government agencies to prohibit travel without written and approved justification for the trip.

The directive requires that federal agencies, with assistance from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), build a system that records approval for federally funded travel for conferences and other ‘nonessential purposes’. Once in place, the agency head ‘shall prohibit agency employees from engaging in federally funded travel for conferences or other nonessential purposes unless the travel-approving official has submitted a brief, written justification for the federally funded travel within such system.’

The order also directs agencies to provide the DOGE administrator with a monthly informational report listing each agency’s justifications for nonessential travel, which shall be posted publicly unless prohibited by law or granted an exemption.

Who, among the 3m US federal employees, is going to ask the billionaire with the chainsaw if they can attend a conference at this point?

Recession

While the immediate effects of tariffs and other MAGA policy positions will be most keenly felt within the US itself, the fallout is coming to a business event near you – wherever you’re located in the world.

That’s because both the tariffs themselves and the ensuing inflationary pressure will increase costs for businesses and consumers everywhere, lowering demand and confidence.

And when this happens, events get hit hard – because the first thing companies cut back on is discretionary spending. And all event-related spending – whether it’s sponsoring a meeting, buying a booth, paying for travel or even just letting staff attend an event – it’s all discretionary.

I was running a global association in the automotive industry when the 2008 crash happened, and it was about as much fun as watching Fox and Friends every day for 18 months.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Trump’s tariffs could reduce global economic growth by 0.5% through next year, representing what it describes as a ‘significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth’.

That said, the economic impact of these tariffs is highly uncertain and unpredictable. The effects will vary from country to country, and a lot will depend on how long the tariffs are levied for, how other countries respond, and how companies manage the tariffs and the uncertainty of trade policy.

Services (the real nightmare scenario)

While services are exempt currently, it’s hard not to see an increased risk of retaliation from other countries that could specifically try to target services, given that the US (with its dominant tech and financial services sectors) is a huge net exporter of services.

This would obviously be calamitous for the event industry and the inter-dependant, international network of specialist suppliers that power everything from management services and marketing, to tech, AV and everything in-between.

What happens next?

Honestly, who knows?!

There’s clearly something of a civil war playing out within the Trump administration itself. But those commentators suggesting that Trump will relent in the near-term are likely wrong. Tariffs define him – even if practically no-one around him is as keen.

As I write this, some of the more extreme tariffs announced on ‘Liberation Day’ have been ‘paused’ for 90 days. The situation with China, though, looks like escalating out of control.

The President may start to go a little easier on Canada and Mexico to minimise the disruption of trade flows in the North American free-trade region while continuing to impose strict tariffs on a few industries, like steel and cars. But having a functional free-trade zone around the US would arguably make it easier to impose tariffs on the rest of the world.

Probably the key to how this plays out will be the mighty dollar.

Trump’s been lucky so far, as the dollar has devalued since he took office. Against the euro, the dollar is down by 8%, which is not strictly what was supposed to happen.

Economic orthodoxy suggests that, if you impose or raise tariffs, the dollar should go up, and (partially at least) cancel out their effects. But that hasn’t happened. If Trump manages to somehow defy the laws of economics and contrive to get the dollar devalued by, say, 20% against the major trading currencies, he might be in a position to go back to the Rose Garden, declare victory and quietly start reducing the tariffs.

But this could be wishful thinking!

Analysing the Trump administration’s economic or geopolitical policies is a bit like encouraging your labradoodle to put its paws up on the keyboard of a piano and then trying to guess the song it’s playing. There is no song. Although, not to over-extend the metaphor, there are plenty of commentators and highly paid people on trading desks trying to convince themselves (and the rest of us) that, if you listen carefully to the labradoodle, you can make out the chords from Sweet Home Alabama.

I believe this is what’s known as sanewashing.

Nevertheless, given a two-hour lesson in A Level economics and some crayons, the same labradoodle would be able to explain why these tariffs are an idiotic political miscalculation driven by fake maths which is, itself, based on fake economics.

Everything will depend on how long tariffs remain; some are clearly bargaining chips for show – others (automobiles) are here to stay; whether they are further watered down; and (critically) what retaliations other countries choose to implement.

By the time you read this, the Trump administration and its Chinese counterparts may have reached a rational compromise, and calm may have returned to global markets.

By the same token, it’s equally possible that tariffs on Chinese goods are up to 300%, Kid Rock has been named Treasury Secretary, and the US has annexed the Heard and McDonald Islands.

All we can do is buckle up, hope for the best and plan for the worst.

Meetings that serve the automotive, wider industrial manufacturing and pharmaceutical industries are unfortunately likely to have a tough time for a while – regardless of where they are in the world.

The domestic meetings industry in the US will also take a significant hit – damaging agencies, venues, hotels and suppliers.

On the plus side, meeting locations outside the US will likely benefit. Congress venues in Italy, Spain and the UK could profit from Trump’s tariffs. Hell, by this time next year Geneva might look like an affordable place to locate a conference.

We could also see a renewed interest in hybrid and virtual event platforms, as organisers scramble to implement more cost-effective ways to reach global audiences during the turmoil.

As ever, we in the event industry must focus on what we can control – maintaining (if not actually improving) the cost-value proposition of our in-person events through innovation and negotiation.

The planners who emerge stronger from this disruption will be those who listened carefully to the needs of the industries and communities they serve; and were proactive in adapting flexible event models, hybrid platforms and deeper local engagement.

And who knows, this might be the final nail in the coffin of exploitative, outdated, per-attendee overcharging for services like event registrations.

That, at least, would be one silver lining.